Falcons vs Patriots – Week 9 2025
ATL
NE
ATL
AWAY
23@24
NE BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 23, New England Patriots 24.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Falcons, 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 65%Our line: NE -5.2
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -5.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.018Net EPA / play+0.205
-0.021 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.158 (1)
-0.004 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.047 (11)
43.7% (18)Offense success %48.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 5.2. Actual: 1. Off by 4.2 points but directionally right.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 5.2. The market has NE at -5.5.
New England Patriots won, ATL 23, NE 24. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -5.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 9, the Atlanta Falcons were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 0.2 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 25, ATL 0 in Week 11 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: ATL -0.018 against NE +0.205.
