Chiefs vs Bills – Week 9 2025
KC
BUF
KC
AWAY
21@28
BUF BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 21, Buffalo Bills 28.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chiefs, 3 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 61%Our line: BUF -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -3.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.055Net EPA / play+0.152
+0.035 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.136 (3)
-0.020 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.016 (13)
44.5% (14)Offense success %48.5% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 3.8. Actual: 7. Off by 3.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@BUFW11 2024 | KC 21, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@KCW14 2023 | BUF 20, KC 17 | KC | L |
| BUF@KCW6 2022 | BUF 24, KC 20 | BUF | W |
| BUF@KCW5 2021 | BUF 38, KC 20 | BUF | W |
| KC@BUFW6 2020 | KC 26, BUF 17 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 3.8. The market has BUF at +2.5.
Buffalo Bills won, KC 21, BUF 28. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at +2.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 9, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 6.6 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Buffalo Bills, KC 21, BUF 30 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: KC +0.055 against BUF +0.152.
