Chiefs vs Bills – Week 11 2024
KC
BUF
KC
AWAY
21@30
BUF BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 21, Buffalo Bills 30.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chiefs, 3 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 61%Our line: BUF -3.7
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -3.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.059Net EPA / play+0.197
+0.070 (9)Offense EPA / play+0.189 (2)
+0.011 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.009 (12)
47.6% (6)Offense success %47.5% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 3.7. Actual: 9. Off by 5.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@BUFW9 2025 | KC 21, BUF 28 | BUF | W |
| BUF@KCW14 2023 | BUF 20, KC 17 | KC | L |
| BUF@KCW6 2022 | BUF 24, KC 20 | BUF | W |
| BUF@KCW5 2021 | BUF 38, KC 20 | BUF | W |
| KC@BUFW6 2020 | KC 26, BUF 17 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 3.7. The market has BUF at -2.5.
Buffalo Bills won, KC 21, BUF 30. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -2.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 11, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 0.4 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Buffalo Bills, KC 21, BUF 28 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: KC +0.059 against BUF +0.197.
