2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ BUF – Week 11 2024
KC
BUF
KC
AWAY
21@30
BUF +9
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BUF 61%Projected margin: 1.4
BUF
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
1.4
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 1.4. Actual: 9. Off by 7.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -142 | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
3 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
283.0SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
195.4SEASON PPR
X.Worthy
WR
187.2SEASON PPR
BUF
J.Allen
QB
372.3SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
266.7SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@BUFW9 2025 | KC 21, BUF 28 | BUF | W |
| BUF@KCW14 2023 | BUF 20, KC 17 | KC | L |
| BUF@KCW6 2022 | BUF 24, KC 20 | BUF | W |
| BUF@KCW5 2021 | BUF 38, KC 20 | BUF | W |
| KC@BUFW6 2020 | KC 26, BUF 17 | KC | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES