2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ CHI – Week 11 2024
GB
CHI
GB
AWAY
20@19
GB +1
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
CHI
HOME
TIER A
PICK: GB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 72%Projected margin: -5.6
GB
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
-5.6
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 5.6. Actual: 1. Off by 4.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -265 | Won · +$0.42 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
293.1SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
233.9SEASON PPR
J.Reed
WR
197.0SEASON PPR
CHI
C.Williams
QB
254.5SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
238.1SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@CHIW16 2025 | GB 16, CHI 22 | CHI | W |
| CHI@GBW14 2025 | CHI 21, GB 28 | GB | W |
| CHI@GBW18 2024 | CHI 24, GB 22 | GB | L |
| CHI@GBW18 2023 | CHI 9, GB 17 | GB | W |
| GB@CHIW1 2023 | GB 38, CHI 20 | GB | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES