Packers vs Bears – Week 11 2024
GB
CHI
GB
AWAY
20@19
GB BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 20, Chicago Bears 19.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Packers, 2 Bears.
Model confidence: GB 72%Our line: GB -7.8
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -7.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.146Net EPA / play-0.088
+0.079 (8)Offense EPA / play-0.082 (26)
-0.067 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (14)
44.9% (14)Offense success %39.9% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 7.8. Actual: 1. Off by 6.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@GBW5 2026 | CHI 7, GB 31 | CHI | L |
| GB@CHIW16 2025 | GB 16, CHI 22 | CHI | W |
| CHI@GBW14 2025 | CHI 21, GB 28 | GB | W |
| CHI@GBW18 2024 | CHI 24, GB 22 | GB | L |
| CHI@GBW18 2023 | CHI 9, GB 17 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs CHI
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project GB by 7.8. The market has GB at -6.0.
Green Bay Packers won, GB 20, CHI 19. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -6.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 11, the Green Bay Packers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 4.0 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, CHI 7, GB 31 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.146 against CHI -0.088.
