2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ DAL – Week 11 2024
HOU
DAL
HOU
AWAY
34@10
HOU +24
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
DAL
HOME
TIER C
PICK: DAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DAL 59%Projected margin: 0.2
DAL
PICK SIDE
+7.5
SPREAD
0.2
PROJ MARGIN
+294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but HOU won. Projected margin was 0.2 -- the model overestimated by 24.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 16.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +7.5 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | +294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -360 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
HOU
J.Mixon
RB
240.5SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
220.4SEASON PPR
N.Collins
WR
210.6SEASON PPR
DAL
C.Lamb
WR
263.4SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
197.8SEASON PPR
J.Tolbert
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@DALW14 2022 | HOU 23, DAL 27 | DAL | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES