Texans vs Cowboys – Week 11 2024
HOU
DAL
HOU
AWAY
34@10
HOU BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 34, Dallas Cowboys 10.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Texans, 4 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 59%Our line: DAL -2.9
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL +7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -2.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.015Net EPA / play-0.192
-0.050 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.109 (29)
-0.065 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.083 (30)
38.8% (31)Offense success %40.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but HOU won. Projected margin was 2.9, the model overestimated by 26.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 16.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@HOUW4 2026 | DAL 34, HOU 30 | HOU | L |
| HOU@DALW14 2022 | HOU 23, DAL 27 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DAL by 2.9. The market has DAL at +7.5.
Houston Texans won, HOU 34, DAL 10. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at +7.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 11, the Houston Texans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 3.9 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2024 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, DAL 34, HOU 30 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.015 against DAL -0.192.
