Falcons vs Broncos – Week 11 2024
ATL
DEN
ATL
AWAY
6@38
DEN BY 32
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 6, Denver Broncos 38.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 8 Falcons, 3 Broncos.
Model confidence: ATL 50%Our line: ATL +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL +2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL +0.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.027Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.034 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.020 (14)
+0.061 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.118 (1)
48.1% (5)Offense success %42.7% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but DEN won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 32.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 30.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
No noteworthy trends
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@ATLW9 2020 | DEN 27, ATL 34 | ATL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs DEN
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 0.0. The market has ATL at +2.0.
Denver Broncos won, ATL 6, DEN 38. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at +2.0, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 11, the Atlanta Falcons were without 8 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.9, 0.4 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, DEN 27, ATL 34 in Week 9 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Denver Broncos: ATL -0.027 against DEN +0.138.
