ATL @ DEN – Week 11 2024
ATL
DEN
ATL
AWAY
6@38
DEN BY 32
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: ATL 50%Our line: ATL +0.0
ATL
PICK SIDE
+2.0
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.027Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.034Offense EPA / play+0.020
+0.061Defense EPA / play-0.118
48.1%Offense success %42.7%
46.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but DEN won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 32.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 30.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ATL | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +114 | -135 |
| Our fair price | +100 | -100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ATL +2.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
45%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
Both figures are for ATL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
No noteworthy trends
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
341.7 SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
280.8 SEASON PPR
D.Mooney
WR
193.2 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
K.Cousins3508 yd · 18 TD · 16 INT
RUSHING
B.Robinson1456 yd · 14 TD
T.Allgeier644 yd · 3 TD
R.McCloud79 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
D.London100 rec · 1271 yd · 9 TD
D.Mooney64 rec · 992 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@ATLW9 2020 | DEN 27, ATL 34 | ATL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 0.0. The market has ATL at +2.0.
The model projects 44.9 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 11 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, DEN 27, ATL 34 in Week 9 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Denver Broncos: ATL -0.027 against DEN +0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
