2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ATL @ DEN – Week 11 2024
ATL
DEN
ATL
AWAY
6@38
DEN +32
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: ATL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ATL 50%Projected margin: 1.3
ATL
PICK SIDE
+2.0
SPREAD
1.3
PROJ MARGIN
+133
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but DEN won. Projected margin was 1.3 -- the model overestimated by 30.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 30.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.0 | ATL market line | |
| MODEL ML | +133 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +114 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ATL
No noteworthy trends
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
341.7SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
280.8SEASON PPR
D.Mooney
WR
193.2SEASON PPR
DEN
B.Nix
QB
317.2SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
240.3SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@ATLW9 2020 | DEN 27, ATL 34 | ATL | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES