Broncos vs Falcons – Week 9 2020
DEN
ATL
DEN
AWAY
27@34
ATL BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 9
2020 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 27, Atlanta Falcons 34.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos, 3 Falcons.
Model confidence: ATL 50%Our line: ATL -0.1
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -0.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.147Net EPA / play-0.042
-0.104 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.021 (16)
+0.043 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.063 (21)
38.8% (32)Offense success %43.2% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ATL. Projected margin: 0.1. Actual: 7. Off by 6.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEN
Melvin Gordon
RB
198.4 SEASON PPR
Drew Lock
QB
181.3 SEASON PPR
Tim Patrick
WR
161.2 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Drew Lock2933 yd · 16 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Melvin Gordon986 yd · 9 TD
Phillip Lindsay502 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman170 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Jerry Jeudy52 rec · 856 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@DENW11 2024 | ATL 6, DEN 38 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ATL by 0.1. The market has ATL at -4.5.
Atlanta Falcons won, DEN 27, ATL 34. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -4.5, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 9, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.7, 2.3 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Denver Broncos, ATL 6, DEN 38 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Atlanta Falcons: DEN -0.147 against ATL -0.042.
