2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ JAX – Week 9 2020
HOU
JAX
HOU
AWAY
27@25
HOU +2
FINAL · WEEK 9
2020 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER C
PICK: HOU
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: HOU 54%Projected margin: -0.9
HOU
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
-0.9
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected HOU by 0.9. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -289 | Won · +$0.36 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
14 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
HOU
Deshaun Watson
QB
369.3SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
232.0SEASON PPR
Will Fuller
WR
188.9SEASON PPR
JAX
James Robinson
RB
250.4SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
160.7SEASON PPR
Laviska Shenault Jr.
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW12 2023 | JAX 24, HOU 21 | JAX | W |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES