Texans vs Jaguars – Week 9 2020
HOU
JAX
HOU
AWAY
27@25
HOU BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 9
2020 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 25.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Texans, 3 Jaguars.
Model confidence: HOU 54%Our line: HOU -1.2
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -1.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.071Net EPA / play-0.204
+0.099 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.059 (28)
+0.170 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.145 (30)
47.6% (7)Offense success %41.5% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected HOU by 1.2. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
HOU
Deshaun Watson
QB
369.3 SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
232.0 SEASON PPR
Will Fuller
WR
188.9 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Deshaun Watson4823 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
David Johnson691 yd · 6 TD
Deshaun Watson444 yd · 3 TD
Duke Johnson235 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks81 rec · 1150 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@JAXW6 2026 | HOU 34, JAX 31 | JAX | L |
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs JAX
Our model takes Houston Texans at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project HOU by 1.2. The market has HOU at -7.0.
Houston Texans won, HOU 27, JAX 25. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Houston Texans at -7.0, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 9, the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 2.2 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 34, JAX 31 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Houston Texans: HOU -0.071 against JAX -0.204.
