Giants vs Commanders – Week 9 2020
NYG
WAS
NYG
AWAY
23@20
NYG BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2020 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 23, Washington Commanders 20.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 55% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Giants, 2 Commanders.
Model confidence: WAS 55%Our line: WAS -1.7
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -1.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.086Net EPA / play+0.023
-0.056 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.067 (29)
+0.031 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.091 (3)
41.6% (27)Offense success %41.2% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but NYG won. Projected margin was 1.7, the model overestimated by 4.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
1 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@WASW5 2026 | NYG 27, WAS 27 | NYG | P |
| WAS@NYGW15 2025 | WAS 29, NYG 21 | WAS | W |
| NYG@WASW1 2025 | NYG 6, WAS 21 | WAS | W |
| WAS@NYGW9 2024 | WAS 27, NYG 22 | WAS | W |
| NYG@WASW2 2024 | NYG 18, WAS 21 | WAS | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs WAS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 55% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 1.7. The market has WAS at -3.0.
New York Giants won, NYG 23, WAS 20. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 55% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Washington Commanders at -3.0, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 9, the New York Giants were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 3.6 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
They tied, NYG 27, WAS 27 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Washington Commanders: NYG -0.086 against WAS +0.023.
