MIA @ ARI – Week 9 2020
MIA
ARI
MIA
AWAY
34@31
MIA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2020 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: ARI 52%Our line: ARI -0.7
ARI
PICK SIDE
-6.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.7
OUR LINE
-109
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.048Net EPA / play+0.031
+0.007Offense EPA / play+0.038
-0.041Defense EPA / play+0.007
46.0%Offense success %45.4%
45.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI C-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but MIA won. Projected margin was 0.7, the model overestimated by 3.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +211 | -241 |
| Our fair price | +109 | -109 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ARI -6.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
52%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
69%
DIFFERENCE
-17%
Both figures are for ARI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
ARI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DeVante Parker
WR
166.3 SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
164.2 SEASON PPR
Mike Gesicki
TE
159.3 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Ryan Fitzpatrick2091 yd · 13 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin584 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed319 yd · 3 TD
Matt Breida254 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DeVante Parker63 rec · 793 yd · 4 TD
Mike Gesicki53 rec · 703 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@MIAW8 2024 | ARI 28, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs ARI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ARI by 0.7. The market has ARI at -6.0.
The model projects 47.5 combined points. The market total is 49.0.
Week 9 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 28, MIA 27 in Week 8 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.048 against ARI +0.031.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
