Dolphins vs Cardinals – Week 9 2020
MIA
ARI
MIA
AWAY
34@31
MIA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2020 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 34, Arizona Cardinals 31.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Dolphins, 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 52%Our line: ARI -0.7
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -0.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.048Net EPA / play+0.031
+0.007 (19)Offense EPA / play+0.038 (14)
-0.041 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.007 (11)
46.0% (13)Offense success %45.4% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI C-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but MIA won. Projected margin was 0.7, the model overestimated by 3.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
ARI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DeVante Parker
WR
166.3 SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
164.2 SEASON PPR
Mike Gesicki
TE
159.3 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Ryan Fitzpatrick2091 yd · 13 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin584 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed319 yd · 3 TD
Matt Breida254 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DeVante Parker63 rec · 793 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@MIAW8 2024 | ARI 28, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs ARI
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ARI by 0.7. The market has ARI at -6.0.
Miami Dolphins won, MIA 34, ARI 31. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -6.0, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 9, the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.5, 1.5 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 28, MIA 27 in Week 8 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.048 against ARI +0.031.
