2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ ARI – Week 9 2020
MIA
ARI
MIA
AWAY
34@31
MIA +3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2020 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER C
PICK: ARI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ARI 52%Projected margin: 1.2
ARI
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
1.2
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI C-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but MIA won. Projected margin was 1.2 -- the model overestimated by 4.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -241 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
ARI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DeVante Parker
WR
166.3SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
164.2SEASON PPR
Mike Gesicki
TE
159.3SEASON PPR
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
378.7SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
287.8SEASON PPR
Kenyan Drake
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@MIAW8 2024 | ARI 28, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES