Bears vs Titans – Week 9 2020
CHI
TEN
CHI
AWAY
17@24
TEN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 9
2020 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 17, Tennessee Titans 24.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Bears, 2 Titans.
Model confidence: TEN 60%Our line: TEN -3.6
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -3.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.033Net EPA / play+0.053
-0.028 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.171 (3)
+0.006 (10)Defense EPA / play+0.117 (28)
43.6% (22)Offense success %50.1% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 3.6. Actual: 7. Off by 3.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CHI
264.8 SEASON PPR
Allen Robinson
WR
262.9 SEASON PPR
Mitchell Trubisky
QB
153.7 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
Mitchell Trubisky2055 yd · 16 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
David Montgomery1070 yd · 8 TD
Cordarrelle Patterson232 yd · 1 TD
Mitchell Trubisky195 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Allen Robinson102 rec · 1250 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@CHIW1 2024 | TEN 17, CHI 24 | CHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 3.6. The market has TEN at -6.5.
Tennessee Titans won, CHI 17, TEN 24. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -6.5, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 9, the Chicago Bears were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 0.1 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, TEN 17, CHI 24 in Week 1 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tennessee Titans: CHI -0.033 against TEN +0.053.
