Seahawks vs Bills – Week 9 2020
SEA
BUF
SEA
AWAY
34@44
BUF BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 9
2020 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 34, Buffalo Bills 44.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Seahawks, 5 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 52%Our line: BUF -0.6
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -0.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.047Net EPA / play+0.147
+0.087 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.164 (4)
+0.040 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.017 (12)
48.2% (6)Offense success %50.2% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 0.6. Actual: 10. Off by 9.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
BUF
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Russell Wilson4212 yd · 40 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Chris Carson681 yd · 5 TD
Russell Wilson513 yd · 2 TD
Carlos Hyde356 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
DK Metcalf83 rec · 1303 yd · 10 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@SEAW8 2024 | BUF 31, SEA 10 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BUF by 0.6. The market has BUF at +3.0.
Buffalo Bills won, SEA 34, BUF 44. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at +3.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 9, the Seattle Seahawks were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 55.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.6, 7.4 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 31, SEA 10 in Week 8 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills: SEA +0.047 against BUF +0.147.
