SEA @ BUF – Week 9 2020
SEA
BUF
SEA
AWAY
34@44
BUF BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 9
2020 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 52%Our line: BUF -0.6
BUF
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.6
OUR LINE
-107
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.047Net EPA / play+0.147
+0.087Offense EPA / play+0.164
+0.040Defense EPA / play+0.017
48.2%Offense success %50.2%
45.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 0.6. Actual: 10. Off by 9.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SEA | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -164 | +147 |
| Our fair price | +107 | -107 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.54
OUR NUMBER
52%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
39%
DIFFERENCE
+12%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
BUF
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
SEA
Russell Wilson
QB
359.8 SEASON PPR
DK Metcalf
WR
271.3 SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
265.4 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Russell Wilson4212 yd · 40 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Chris Carson681 yd · 5 TD
Russell Wilson513 yd · 2 TD
Carlos Hyde356 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
DK Metcalf83 rec · 1303 yd · 10 TD
Tyler Lockett100 rec · 1054 yd · 10 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@SEAW8 2024 | BUF 31, SEA 10 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BUF by 0.6. The market has BUF at +3.0.
The model projects 47.6 combined points. The market total is 55.0.
Week 9 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 31, SEA 10 in Week 8 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills: SEA +0.047 against BUF +0.147.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
