NYG @ WAS – Week 5 2026
NYG
WAS
NYG
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 5 · 2026 SEASON
WAS
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: WAS 65%Projected margin: -3.2
WAS
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-3.2
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.075Net EPA / play-0.137
+0.012Offense EPA / play+0.005
+0.087Defense EPA / play+0.142
42.1%Offense success %45.6%
47.0%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors WAS (B-tier, 65% confidence).
HIGH CONVICTION
WAS is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
TEMPO
WAS runs no-huddle on 62% of plays -- a fast tempo that can exploit defensive fatigue.
H2H EDGE
WAS has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against NYG.
Multiple signals align in WAS's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | WAS market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYG
J.Dart
QB
241.6SEASON PPR
W.Robinson
WR
217.9SEASON PPR
T.Tracy
RB
160.8SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
J.Dart2272 yd · 15 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
T.Tracy740 yd · 2 TD
J.Dart487 yd · 9 TD
D.Singletary437 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
W.Robinson92 rec · 1014 yd · 4 TD
D.Slayton37 rec · 538 yd · 1 TD
T.Johnson45 rec · 528 yd · 5 TD
T.Tracy36 rec · 288 yd · 2 TD
VS
2,272PASSyds1,695
1,664RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@NYGW10 2026 | — | NYG | — |
| WAS@NYGW15 2025 | WAS 29, NYG 21 | WAS | W |
| NYG@WASW1 2025 | NYG 6, WAS 21 | WAS | W |
| WAS@NYGW9 2024 | WAS 27, NYG 22 | WAS | W |
| NYG@WASW2 2024 | NYG 18, WAS 21 | WAS | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs WAS
Who is favored in New York Giants at Washington Commanders?
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 3.2. The market has WAS at -2.5.
When do the New York Giants and Washington Commanders play?
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last New York Giants vs Washington Commanders game?
Washington Commanders, 29-21 in Week 15 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the New York Giants or the Washington Commanders?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New York Giants: NYG -0.075 against WAS -0.137.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
