MIN @ NO – Week 5 2026
MIN
NO
MIN
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 5 · 2026 SEASON
NO
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 59%Projected margin: -0.3
MIN
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
-0.3
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.016Net EPA / play-0.029
-0.116Offense EPA / play-0.088
-0.100Defense EPA / play-0.059
42.6%Offense success %42.0%
41.0%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
MIN is our C-tier play in MIN @ NO (Week 5, 2026). The model assigns 58.7% confidence and projects MIN by 0.3. Market spread sits at MIN -1.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | MIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
201.5SEASON PPR
J.Addison
WR
135.1SEASON PPR
J.Mason
RB
128.9SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
J.McCarthy1632 yd · 11 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Mason758 yd · 6 TD
A.Jones548 yd · 2 TD
J.McCarthy181 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
J.Jefferson84 rec · 1048 yd · 2 TD
J.Addison42 rec · 610 yd · 3 TD
J.Nailor29 rec · 444 yd · 4 TD
T.Hockenson51 rec · 438 yd · 3 TD
VS
1,632PASSyds2,384
1,487RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@MINW10 2023 | NO 19, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| MIN@NOW4 2022 | MIN 28, NO 25 | MIN | W |
| MIN@NOW16 2020 | MIN 33, NO 52 | NO | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs NO
Who is favored in Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints?
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIN by 0.3. The market has MIN at -1.5.
When do the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints play?
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints game?
Minnesota Vikings, 19-27 in Week 10 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the Minnesota Vikings or the New Orleans Saints?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN -0.016 against NO -0.029.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
