Vikings vs Saints – Week 5 2026
MIN
NO
MIN
AWAY
23@13
MIN BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 5
2026 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Vikings, 3 Saints.
Model confidence: MIN 69%Our line: MIN -6.5
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.111Net EPA / play-0.148
-0.099 (28)Offense EPA / play-0.054 (23)
-0.210 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.094 (26)
35.9% (32)Offense success %43.1% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 6.5. Actual: 10. Off by 3.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
K.Murray662 yd · 2 TD · 2 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@MINW10 2023 | NO 19, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| MIN@NOW4 2022 | MIN 28, NO 25 | MIN | W |
| MIN@NOW16 2020 | MIN 33, NO 52 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs NO
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 6.5. The market has MIN at -2.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 23, NO 13. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -2.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 5, the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.9, 3.4 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, NO 19, MIN 27 in Week 10 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN +0.111 against NO -0.148.
