BAL @ ATL – Week 5 2026
BAL
ATL
BAL
AWAY
@
SUN 8:20 PM
WEEK 5 · 2026 SEASON
ATL
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: ATL 64%Projected margin: -2.5
ATL
PICK SIDE
+4.5
SPREAD
-2.5
PROJ MARGIN
+191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.010Net EPA / play-0.018
+0.034Offense EPA / play-0.021
+0.024Defense EPA / play-0.004
44.6%Offense success %43.7%
44.1%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
ATL is our C-tier play in BAL @ ATL (Week 5, 2026). The model assigns 64.3% confidence and projects ATL by 2.5. Market spread sits at ATL +4.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +4.5 | ATL market line | |
| MODEL ML | +191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BAL
D.Henry
RB
279.5SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
243.3SEASON PPR
L.Jackson
QB
214.9SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Baltimore RavensPASSING
L.Jackson2549 yd · 21 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Henry1595 yd · 16 TD
L.Jackson349 yd · 2 TD
K.Mitchell341 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Z.Flowers86 rec · 1211 yd · 5 TD
M.Andrews48 rec · 422 yd · 5 TD
D.Hopkins22 rec · 330 yd · 2 TD
I.Likely27 rec · 307 yd · 1 TD
VS
2,549PASSyds1,982
2,285RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@BALW16 2022 | ATL 9, BAL 17 | BAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs ATL
Who is favored in Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons?
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 64% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ATL by 2.5. The market has ATL at +4.5.
When do the Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons play?
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Who won the last Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons game?
Baltimore Ravens, 9-17 in Week 16 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Baltimore Ravens or the Atlanta Falcons?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.010 against ATL -0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
