Falcons vs Ravens – Week 16 2022
ATL
BAL
ATL
AWAY
9@17
BAL BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 9, Baltimore Ravens 17.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Falcons, 3 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 66%Our line: BAL -5.6
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -5.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.075Net EPA / play+0.019
+0.005 (14)Offense EPA / play+0.004 (15)
+0.080 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.014 (15)
45.5% (10)Offense success %45.3% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 5.6. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 2.4 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
COLD GAME
17°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
17°F
WIND
9 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@ATLW5 2026 | BAL 30, ATL 23 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 5.6. The market has BAL at -6.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, ATL 9, BAL 17. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -6.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 16, the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 35.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 11.4 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2022 season, SAT 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 30, ATL 23 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Baltimore Ravens: ATL -0.075 against BAL +0.019.
