Saints vs Browns – Week 16 2022
NO
CLE
NO
AWAY
17@10
NO BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 17, Cleveland Browns 10.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Saints, 1 Browns.
Model confidence: CLE 63%Our line: CLE -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.018Net EPA / play-0.001
-0.038 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (10)
-0.056 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.014 (22)
45.7% (8)Offense success %44.0% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but NO won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 11.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
HIGH WIND
27 MPH winds and 6°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
6°F
WIND
27 MPH
COLD GAMEWINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Andy Dalton2871 yd · 18 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@NOW11 2024 | CLE 14, NO 35 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs CLE
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 4.5. The market has CLE at -3.0.
New Orleans Saints won, NO 17, CLE 10. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -3.0, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 16, the New Orleans Saints were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 32.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 14.1 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2022 season, SAT 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, CLE 14, NO 35 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.018 against CLE -0.001.
