NO @ CLE – Week 16 2022
NO
CLE
NO
AWAY
17@10
NO BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: CLE 63%Our line: CLE -4.5
CLE
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.5
OUR LINE
-170
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.018Net EPA / play-0.001
-0.038Offense EPA / play+0.012
-0.056Defense EPA / play+0.014
45.7%Offense success %44.0%
41.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but NO won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 11.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
HIGH WIND
27 MPH winds and 6°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NO | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +162 | -181 |
| Our fair price | +170 | -170 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CLE -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
63%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
Both figures are for CLE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
6°F
WIND
27 MPH
COLD GAMEWINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
211.7 SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
198.2 SEASON PPR
Andy Dalton
QB
174.2 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Andy Dalton2871 yd · 18 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Alvin Kamara897 yd · 2 TD
Mark Ingram233 yd · 1 TD
Rashid Shaheed57 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Chris Olave72 rec · 1042 yd · 4 TD
Juwan Johnson42 rec · 508 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@NOW11 2024 | CLE 14, NO 35 | NO | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs CLE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 4.5. The market has CLE at -3.0.
The model projects 46.1 combined points. The market total is 32.0.
Week 16 of the 2022 season, SAT 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, CLE 14, NO 35 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.018 against CLE -0.001.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
