BUF @ CHI – Week 16 2022
BUF
CHI
BUF
AWAY
35@13
BUF BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 81%Our line: BUF -11.9
BUF
PICK SIDE
-8.0
MARKET SPREAD
-11.9
OUR LINE
-428
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.168Net EPA / play-0.164
+0.116Offense EPA / play-0.046
-0.052Defense EPA / play+0.118
49.0%Offense success %40.5%
43.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 11.9. Actual: 22. Off by 10.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds and 7°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BUF | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -360 | +304 |
| Our fair price | -428 | +428 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -8.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.32
OUR NUMBER
81%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
76%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
7°F
WIND
17 MPH
COLD GAMEWINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
395.5 SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
316.6 SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
177.9 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
Josh Allen4283 yd · 35 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Devin Singletary819 yd · 5 TD
Josh Allen762 yd · 7 TD
James Cook507 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Stefon Diggs108 rec · 1429 yd · 11 TD
Gabe Davis48 rec · 836 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 81% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BUF by 11.9. The market has BUF at -8.0.
The model projects 48.1 combined points. The market total is 40.0.
Week 16 of the 2022 season, SAT 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.168 against CHI -0.164.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
