Bills vs Bears – Week 16 2022
BUF
CHI
BUF
AWAY
35@13
BUF BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 35, Chicago Bears 13.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 81% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bills, 6 Bears.
Model confidence: BUF 81%Our line: BUF -11.9
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -8.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -11.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.168Net EPA / play-0.164
+0.116 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.046 (23)
-0.052 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.118 (32)
49.0% (2)Offense success %40.5% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 11.9. Actual: 22. Off by 10.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds and 7°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
7°F
WIND
17 MPH
COLD GAMEWINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs CHI
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 81% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BUF by 11.9. The market has BUF at -8.0.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 35, CHI 13. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 81% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -8.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 8.0 points.
In Week 16, the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.1, 8.1 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2022 season, SAT 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.168 against CHI -0.164.
