2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ ARI – Week 16 2022
TB
ARI
TB
AWAY
19@16
TB +3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 66%Projected margin: -3.5
TB
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
-3.5
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 3.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 18 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -320 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
225.4SEASON PPR
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
200.5SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
200.2SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@TBW13 2025 | ARI 17, TB 20 | TB | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES