Buccaneers vs Cardinals – Week 16 2022
TB
ARI
TB
AWAY
19@16
TB BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19, Arizona Cardinals 16.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Buccaneers, 3 Cardinals.
Model confidence: TB 66%Our line: TB -5.5
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -5.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.013Net EPA / play-0.104
-0.038 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (28)
-0.025 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.016 (23)
43.8% (20)Offense success %40.6% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 5.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 18 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7 SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
225.4 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady4694 yd · 25 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Mike Evans77 rec · 1124 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@TBW13 2025 | ARI 17, TB 20 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs ARI
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 5.5. The market has TB at -7.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 19, ARI 16. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -7.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 16, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 4.2 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2022 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, ARI 17, TB 20 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB -0.013 against ARI -0.104.
