DEN @ LA – Week 16 2022
DEN
LA
DEN
AWAY
14@51
LA BY 37
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
Model confidence: LA 56%Our line: LA -2.1
LA
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.1
OUR LINE
-129
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.060Net EPA / play-0.105
-0.109Offense EPA / play-0.088
-0.049Defense EPA / play+0.017
38.1%Offense success %41.0%
41.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 2.1. Actual: 37. Off by 34.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 40.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DEN | LA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -173 | +155 |
| Our fair price | +129 | -129 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LA +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.54
OUR NUMBER
56%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
38%
DIFFERENCE
+18%
Both figures are for LA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
LA
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
225.8 SEASON PPR
Jerry Jeudy
WR
204.2 SEASON PPR
Courtland Sutton
WR
159.4 SEASON PPR
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Russell Wilson3524 yd · 16 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Latavius Murray703 yd · 5 TD
Melvin Gordon318 yd · 2 TD
Russell Wilson277 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Jerry Jeudy67 rec · 972 yd · 6 TD
Courtland Sutton64 rec · 829 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs LA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 2.1. The market has LA at +3.0.
The model projects 45.7 combined points. The market total is 36.5.
Week 16 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:30 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Denver Broncos: DEN -0.060 against LA -0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
