Broncos vs Rams – Week 16 2022
DEN
LA
DEN
AWAY
14@51
LA BY 37
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 14, Los Angeles Rams 51.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Broncos, 7 Rams.
Model confidence: LA 56%Our line: LA -2.1
ODDS
SPREAD
LA +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -2.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.060Net EPA / play-0.105
-0.109 (30)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (29)
-0.049 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.017 (24)
38.1% (31)Offense success %41.0% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 2.1. Actual: 37. Off by 34.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 40.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
LA
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Russell Wilson3524 yd · 16 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Latavius Murray703 yd · 5 TD
Melvin Gordon318 yd · 2 TD
Russell Wilson277 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Jerry Jeudy67 rec · 972 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@DENW3 2026 | LA 26, DEN 30 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 2.1. The market has LA at +3.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, DEN 14, LA 51. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at +3.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 16, the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Rams were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 9.2 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:30 PM.
Denver Broncos, LA 26, DEN 30 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Denver Broncos: DEN -0.060 against LA -0.105.
