Giants vs Vikings – Week 16 2022
NYG
MIN
NYG
AWAY
24@27
MIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 24, Minnesota Vikings 27.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Giants, 1 Vikings.
Model confidence: MIN 68%Our line: MIN -6.3
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -6.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.016Net EPA / play-0.023
+0.030 (9)Offense EPA / play-0.011 (19)
+0.046 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.012 (21)
44.9% (14)Offense success %44.9% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 6.3. Actual: 3. Off by 3.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@NYGW16 2025 | MIN 16, NYG 13 | MIN | W |
| MIN@NYGW1 2024 | MIN 28, NYG 6 | NYG | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 6.3. The market has MIN at -4.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, NYG 24, MIN 27. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -4.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 16, the New York Giants were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.1, 2.9 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2022 season, SAT 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 16, NYG 13 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New York Giants: NYG -0.016 against MIN -0.023.
