Texans vs Titans – Week 16 2022
HOU
TEN
HOU
AWAY
19@14
HOU BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 19, Tennessee Titans 14.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Texans, 7 Titans.
Model confidence: TEN 66%Our line: TEN -5.6
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -5.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.192Net EPA / play-0.064
-0.189 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.059 (25)
+0.003 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (18)
36.9% (32)Offense success %41.1% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TEN but HOU won. Projected margin was 5.6, the model overestimated by 10.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
COLD GAME
22°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
22°F
WIND
14 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills3118 yd · 17 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Dameon Pierce939 yd · 4 TD
Dare Ogunbowale123 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman117 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks57 rec · 699 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@TENW5 2026 | HOU 26, TEN 3 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW11 2025 | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 5.6. The market has TEN at -3.0.
Houston Texans won, HOU 19, TEN 14. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -3.0, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 16, the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 34.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.9, 10.9 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2022 season, SAT 2:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 26, TEN 3 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Tennessee Titans: HOU -0.192 against TEN -0.064.
