IND @ PIT – Week 5 2026
IND
PIT
IND
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 5 · 2026 SEASON
PIT
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: PIT 70%Projected margin: -5.5
PIT
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-5.5
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.068Net EPA / play+0.007
+0.072Offense EPA / play+0.025
+0.004Defense EPA / play+0.018
46.3%Offense success %44.0%
45.5%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors PIT (B-tier, 70% confidence).
HIGH CONVICTION
PIT is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
H2H EDGE
PIT has won 3 of the last 5 meetings against IND.
Net-positive signal profile for PIT. Grade: B.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
362.3SEASON PPR
D.Jones
QB
226.4SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
202.4SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
D.Jones3101 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
J.Taylor1585 yd · 18 TD
D.Jones164 yd · 5 TD
D.Giddens96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.Pierce47 rec · 1003 yd · 6 TD
T.Warren76 rec · 817 yd · 4 TD
M.Pittman80 rec · 784 yd · 7 TD
J.Downs58 rec · 566 yd · 4 TD
VS
3,101PASSyds3,322
1,845RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@PITW9 2025 | IND 20, PIT 27 | IND | L |
| PIT@INDW4 2024 | PIT 24, IND 27 | PIT | L |
| PIT@INDW15 2023 | PIT 13, IND 30 | PIT | L |
| PIT@INDW12 2022 | PIT 24, IND 17 | IND | L |
| IND@PITW16 2020 | IND 24, PIT 28 | IND | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs PIT
Who is favored in Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers?
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 5.5. The market has PIT at -2.5.
When do the Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers play?
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers game?
Pittsburgh Steelers, 20-27 in Week 9 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Indianapolis Colts or the Pittsburgh Steelers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND +0.068 against PIT +0.007.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
