Bengals vs Dolphins – Week 5 2026
CIN
MIA
CIN
AWAY
31@24
CIN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 5
2026 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bengals, 4 Dolphins.
A midweek injury update moved the Bengals from 65% to 67%.
Model confidence: CIN 67%Our line: CIN -5.8
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.102Net EPA / play-0.224
+0.072 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.116 (29)
-0.030 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.108 (28)
47.1% (8)Offense success %37.6% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CIN by 5.8. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 1.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-7.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@MIAW16 2025 | CIN 45, MIA 21 | MIA | L |
| MIA@CINW4 2022 | MIA 15, CIN 27 | MIA | L |
| CIN@MIAW13 2020 | CIN 7, MIA 19 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs MIA
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 5.8. The market has CIN at -7.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 31, MIA 24. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -7.0, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 5, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 1.5 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 45, MIA 21 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.102 against MIA -0.224.
