CIN @ MIA – Week 5 2026
CIN
MIA
CIN
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 5 · 2026 SEASON
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 59%Projected margin: +0.6
CIN
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
+0.6
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.138Net EPA / play-0.105
-0.009Offense EPA / play-0.017
+0.130Defense EPA / play+0.088
45.5%Offense success %41.9%
47.8%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
CIN is our C-tier play in CIN @ MIA (Week 5, 2026). The model assigns 59.1% confidence and projects MIA by 0.6. Market spread sits at CIN -6.0.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | CIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
313.6SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
282.6SEASON PPR
T.Higgins
WR
211.6SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
J.Burrow1809 yd · 17 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
C.Brown1019 yd · 6 TD
S.Perine382 yd · 3 TD
T.Brooks45 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
J.Chase125 rec · 1412 yd · 8 TD
T.Higgins59 rec · 846 yd · 11 TD
C.Brown69 rec · 437 yd · 5 TD
A.Iosivas33 rec · 435 yd · 2 TD
VS
1,809PASSyds2,660
1,446RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@MIAW16 2025 | CIN 45, MIA 21 | MIA | L |
| MIA@CINW4 2022 | MIA 15, CIN 27 | MIA | L |
| CIN@MIAW13 2020 | CIN 7, MIA 19 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs MIA
Who is favored in Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins?
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 0.6. The market has CIN at -6.0.
When do the Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins play?
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins game?
Cincinnati Bengals, 45-21 in Week 16 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Cincinnati Bengals or the Miami Dolphins?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Miami Dolphins: CIN -0.138 against MIA -0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
