Raiders vs Patriots – Week 5 2026
LV
NE
LV
AWAY
17@45
NE BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 5
2026 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Raiders, 6 Patriots.
A midweek injury update moved the Patriots from 75% to 73%.
Model confidence: NE 73%Our line: NE -8.2
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.001Net EPA / play+0.055
+0.004 (14)Offense EPA / play+0.046 (11)
+0.005 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.009 (17)
42.6% (17)Offense success %45.4% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 8.2. Actual: 28. Off by 19.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 24.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@NEW1 2025 | LV 20, NE 13 | NE | L |
| NE@LVW6 2023 | NE 17, LV 21 | LV | W |
| NE@LVW15 2022 | NE 24, LV 30 | LV | W |
| LV@NEW3 2020 | LV 20, NE 36 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project NE by 8.2. The market has NE at -3.5.
New England Patriots won, LV 17, NE 45. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -3.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 5, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 1.2 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 20, NE 13 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, New England Patriots: LV -0.001 against NE +0.055.
