LV @ NE – Week 5 2026
LV
NE
LV
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 5 · 2026 SEASON
NE
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: NE 85%Projected margin: -13.6
NE
PICK SIDE
-8.5
SPREAD
-13.6
PROJ MARGIN
-340
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.240Net EPA / play+0.205
-0.215Offense EPA / play+0.158
+0.024Defense EPA / play-0.047
37.6%Offense success %48.4%
45.0%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
S-tier pick on NE at 85% confidence.
EPA EDGE
NE generates 0.158 EPA/play on offense. LV's defense allows 0.024. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
S-TIER
S-tier. Only the most extreme edges earn this grade. Historically NoPunt's highest hit-rate tier.
HIGH CONVICTION
NE is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
RED ZONE
NE converts 84% in the red zone vs 61% for LV. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
NE scores 2.2 points per drive vs 1.0 for LV. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in NE's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.5 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -340 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LV
A.Jeanty
RB
245.1SEASON PPR
B.Bowers
TE
176.2SEASON PPR
G.Smith
QB
173.9SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Smith3025 yd · 19 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
A.Jeanty975 yd · 5 TD
G.Smith109 yd · 0 TD
R.Mostert104 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
T.Tucker57 rec · 696 yd · 5 TD
B.Bowers64 rec · 680 yd · 7 TD
J.Meyers33 rec · 352 yd · 0 TD
A.Jeanty55 rec · 346 yd · 5 TD
VS
3,025PASSyds4,394
1,188RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@NEW1 2025 | LV 20, NE 13 | NE | L |
| NE@LVW6 2023 | NE 17, LV 21 | LV | W |
| NE@LVW15 2022 | NE 24, LV 30 | LV | W |
| LV@NEW3 2020 | LV 20, NE 36 | NE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs NE
Who is favored in Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots?
Our model takes New England Patriots at 85% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project NE by 13.6. The market has NE at -8.5.
When do the Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots play?
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots game?
Las Vegas Raiders, 20-13 in Week 1 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Las Vegas Raiders or the New England Patriots?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: LV -0.240 against NE +0.205.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
