2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ NE – Week 3 2020
LV
NE
LV
AWAY
20@36
NE +16
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
NE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NE
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: NE 57%Projected margin: 1.9
NE
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
1.9
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 1.9. Actual: 16. Off by 14.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -311 | Won · +$0.36 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LV
Darren Waller
TE
278.6SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
272.1SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
231.3SEASON PPR
NE
Cam Newton
QB
261.0SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
142.5SEASON PPR
James White
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@NEW1 2025 | LV 20, NE 13 | NE | L |
| NE@LVW6 2023 | NE 17, LV 21 | LV | W |
| NE@LVW15 2022 | NE 24, LV 30 | LV | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES