Raiders vs Patriots – Week 3 2020
LV
NE
LV
AWAY
20@36
NE BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 20, New England Patriots 36.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Raiders, 3 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 57%Our line: NE -2.2
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -2.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.085Net EPA / play-0.076
+0.045 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.004 (21)
+0.130 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.071 (22)
46.5% (11)Offense success %46.1% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 2.2. Actual: 16. Off by 13.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr4103 yd · 27 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Darren Waller107 rec · 1196 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@NEW5 2026 | LV 17, NE 45 | NE | W |
| LV@NEW1 2025 | LV 20, NE 13 | NE | L |
| NE@LVW6 2023 | NE 17, LV 21 | LV | W |
| NE@LVW15 2022 | NE 24, LV 30 | LV | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 2.2. The market has NE at -7.0.
New England Patriots won, LV 20, NE 36. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -7.0, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 3, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.1, 0.1 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, LV 17, NE 45 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New England Patriots: LV -0.085 against NE -0.076.
