Commanders vs Browns – Week 3 2020
WAS
CLE
WAS
AWAY
20@34
CLE BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 20, Cleveland Browns 34.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Commanders, 3 Browns.
Model confidence: CLE 54%Our line: CLE -1.2
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -1.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.023Net EPA / play+0.011
-0.067 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.088 (10)
-0.091 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.077 (23)
41.2% (29)Offense success %46.6% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 1.2. Actual: 14. Off by 12.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
HIGH WIND
18 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
CLE
Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
18 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
WAS
Terry McLaurin
WR
223.8 SEASON PPR
Antonio Gibson
RB
202.2 SEASON PPR
J.D. McKissic
RB
191.4 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Alex Smith1582 yd · 6 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Antonio Gibson795 yd · 11 TD
J.D. McKissic365 yd · 1 TD
Peyton Barber258 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin87 rec · 1118 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@WASW5 2024 | CLE 13, WAS 34 | WAS | W |
| CLE@WASW17 2022 | CLE 24, WAS 10 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs CLE
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 54% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 1.2. The market has CLE at -7.5.
Cleveland Browns won, WAS 20, CLE 34. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -7.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 3, the Washington Commanders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 1.3 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Washington Commanders, CLE 13, WAS 34 in Week 5 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Washington Commanders: WAS +0.023 against CLE +0.011.
