Browns vs Commanders – Week 17 2022
CLE
WAS
CLE
AWAY
24@10
CLE BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 17
2022 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 24, Washington Commanders 10.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Commanders.
Model confidence: CLE 56%Our line: CLE -2.0
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -2.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.001Net EPA / play-0.003
+0.012 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.078 (26)
+0.014 (22)Defense EPA / play-0.075 (4)
44.0% (19)Offense success %40.4% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 2.0. Actual: 14. Off by 12.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
WAS
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@WASW5 2024 | CLE 13, WAS 34 | WAS | W |
| WAS@CLEW3 2020 | WAS 20, CLE 34 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs WAS
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CLE by 2.0. The market has CLE at +1.0.
Cleveland Browns won, CLE 24, WAS 10. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at +1.0, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 17, the Washington Commanders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 3.5 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Washington Commanders, CLE 13, WAS 34 in Week 5 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE -0.001 against WAS -0.003.
