Steelers vs Ravens – Week 17 2022
PIT
BAL
PIT
AWAY
16@13
PIT BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 17
2022 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 16, Baltimore Ravens 13.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Steelers, 2 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 59%Our line: BAL -2.9
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -2.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.012Net EPA / play+0.019
+0.012 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.004 (15)
+0.024 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.014 (15)
45.1% (12)Offense success %45.3% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL C-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but PIT won. Projected margin was 2.9, the model overestimated by 5.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
No noteworthy trends
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
44°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Kenny Pickett2404 yd · 7 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson86 rec · 882 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@PITW18 2025 | BAL 24, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
| PIT@BALW14 2025 | PIT 27, BAL 22 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW16 2024 | PIT 17, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| BAL@PITW11 2024 | BAL 16, PIT 18 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW18 2023 | PIT 17, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BAL by 2.9. The market has BAL at -1.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 16, BAL 13. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -1.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 17, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 35.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 11.3 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2022 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, BAL 24, PIT 26 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Baltimore Ravens: PIT -0.012 against BAL +0.019.
