2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ HOU – Week 17 2022
JAX
HOU
JAX
AWAY
31@3
JAX +28
FINAL · WEEK 17
2022 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER B
PICK: JAX
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: JAX 69%Projected margin: -4.5
JAX
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-4.5
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 4.5. Actual: 28. Off by 23.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 24.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -187 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
No noteworthy trends
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
295.6SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9SEASON PPR
Travis Etienne
RB
205.1SEASON PPR
HOU
Davis Mills
QB
181.5SEASON PPR
Dameon Pierce
RB
166.4SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW12 2023 | JAX 24, HOU 21 | JAX | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES