Jaguars vs Texans – Week 17 2022
JAX
HOU
JAX
AWAY
31@3
JAX BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 17
2022 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 31, Houston Texans 3.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Texans.
Model confidence: JAX 69%Our line: JAX -6.8
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -6.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.067Net EPA / play-0.192
+0.046 (8)Offense EPA / play-0.189 (32)
-0.021 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.003 (17)
46.3% (5)Offense success %36.9% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 6.8. Actual: 28. Off by 21.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 24.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
No noteworthy trends
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
295.6 SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9 SEASON PPR
205.1 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@JAXW6 2026 | HOU 34, JAX 31 | JAX | L |
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs HOU
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 6.8. The market has JAX at -3.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, JAX 31, HOU 3. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -3.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 17, the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 3.5 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 34, JAX 31 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.067 against HOU -0.192.
