DAL @ TEN – Week 17 2022
DAL
TEN
DAL
AWAY
27@13
DAL BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 17
2022 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: DAL 78%Our line: DAL -10.4
DAL
PICK SIDE
-14.0
MARKET SPREAD
-10.4
OUR LINE
-353
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.109Net EPA / play-0.064
+0.012Offense EPA / play-0.059
-0.097Defense EPA / play+0.004
44.6%Offense success %41.1%
40.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 10.4. Actual: 14. Off by 3.6 points but directionally right.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-14.0). Push, no winner ATS.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DAL | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -741 | +563 |
| Our fair price | -353 | +353 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DAL -14.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.13
OUR NUMBER
78%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
85%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for DAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DAL
CeeDee Lamb
WR
301.6 SEASON PPR
Tony Pollard
RB
248.8 SEASON PPR
Dak Prescott
QB
198.6 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
Dak Prescott2860 yd · 23 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Tony Pollard1007 yd · 9 TD
Ezekiel Elliott876 yd · 12 TD
Dak Prescott182 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
CeeDee Lamb107 rec · 1359 yd · 9 TD
Dalton Schultz57 rec · 577 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 78% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DAL by 10.4. The market has DAL at -14.0.
The model projects 45.4 combined points. The market total is 41.0.
Week 17 of the 2022 season, THU 8:15 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.109 against TEN -0.064.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
