Cowboys vs Titans – Week 17 2022
DAL
TEN
DAL
AWAY
27@13
DAL BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 17
2022 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 27, Tennessee Titans 13.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cowboys, 11 Titans.
Model confidence: DAL 78%Our line: DAL -10.4
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -10.4
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.109Net EPA / play-0.064
+0.012 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.059 (25)
-0.097 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (18)
44.6% (15)Offense success %41.1% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 10.4. Actual: 14. Off by 3.6 points but directionally right.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-14.0). Push, no winner ATS.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs TEN
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 78% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DAL by 10.4. The market has DAL at -14.0.
Dallas Cowboys won, DAL 27, TEN 13. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -14.0, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 17, the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 11 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 4.4 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2022 season, THU 8:15 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.109 against TEN -0.064.
