Rams vs Chargers – Week 17 2022
LA
LAC
LA
AWAY
10@31
LAC BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 17
2022 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 10, Los Angeles Chargers 31.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Rams, 1 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 70%Our line: LAC -7.1
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -7.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.105Net EPA / play+0.001
-0.088 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.007 (13)
+0.017 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (19)
41.0% (23)Offense success %44.1% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 7.1. Actual: 21. Off by 13.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 7.1. The market has LAC at -6.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LA 10, LAC 31. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -6.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 17, the Los Angeles Rams were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 3.5 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LA -0.105 against LAC +0.001.
