Titans vs Vikings – Week 3 2020
TEN
MIN
TEN
AWAY
31@30
TEN BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 31, Minnesota Vikings 30.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Titans, 2 Vikings.
Model confidence: TEN 56%Our line: TEN -2.1
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -2.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.053Net EPA / play-0.003
+0.171 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.095 (8)
+0.117 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.098 (27)
50.1% (3)Offense success %49.2% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TEN by 2.1. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 1.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill3819 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@TENW11 2024 | MIN 23, TEN 13 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs MIN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 56% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 2.1. The market has TEN at -3.0.
Tennessee Titans won, TEN 31, MIN 30. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -3.0, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 3, the Tennessee Titans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 2.7 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 23, TEN 13 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tennessee Titans: TEN +0.053 against MIN -0.003.
