2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ JAX – Week 3 2020
MIA
JAX
MIA
AWAY
31@13
MIA +18
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER C
PICK: JAX
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: JAX 54%Projected margin: 0.1
JAX
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
0.1
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but MIA won. Projected margin was 0.1 -- the model overestimated by 18.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 21.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -138 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DeVante Parker
WR
166.3SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
164.2SEASON PPR
Mike Gesicki
TE
159.3SEASON PPR
JAX
James Robinson
RB
250.4SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
160.7SEASON PPR
Laviska Shenault Jr.
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@MIAW1 2024 | JAX 17, MIA 20 | MIA | W |
| MIA@JAXW6 2021 | MIA 20, JAX 23 | MIA | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES