Dolphins vs Jaguars – Week 3 2020
MIA
JAX
MIA
AWAY
31@13
MIA BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 31, Jacksonville Jaguars 13.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 54% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Dolphins, 2 Jaguars.
Model confidence: JAX 54%Our line: JAX -1.3
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -1.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.204
+0.007 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.059 (28)
-0.041 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.145 (30)
46.0% (13)Offense success %41.5% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but MIA won. Projected margin was 1.3, the model overestimated by 19.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 21.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DeVante Parker
WR
166.3 SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
164.2 SEASON PPR
Mike Gesicki
TE
159.3 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Ryan Fitzpatrick2091 yd · 13 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin584 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed319 yd · 3 TD
Matt Breida254 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DeVante Parker63 rec · 793 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@MIAW1 2024 | JAX 17, MIA 20 | MIA | W |
| MIA@JAXW6 2021 | MIA 20, JAX 23 | MIA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project JAX by 1.3. The market has JAX at -3.0.
Miami Dolphins won, MIA 31, JAX 13. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 54% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -3.0, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 3, the Miami Dolphins were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 3.0 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2020 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Miami Dolphins, JAX 17, MIA 20 in Week 1 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.048 against JAX -0.204.
