MIA @ JAX – Week 3 2020
MIA
JAX
MIA
AWAY
31@13
MIA BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 54%Our line: JAX -1.3
JAX
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-1.3
OUR LINE
-117
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.204
+0.007Offense EPA / play-0.059
-0.041Defense EPA / play+0.145
46.0%Offense success %41.5%
45.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but MIA won. Projected margin was 1.3, the model overestimated by 19.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 21.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +124 | -138 |
| Our fair price | +117 | -117 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD JAX -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
54%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
56%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for JAX. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DeVante Parker
WR
166.3 SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
164.2 SEASON PPR
Mike Gesicki
TE
159.3 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Ryan Fitzpatrick2091 yd · 13 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin584 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed319 yd · 3 TD
Matt Breida254 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DeVante Parker63 rec · 793 yd · 4 TD
Mike Gesicki53 rec · 703 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@MIAW1 2024 | JAX 17, MIA 20 | MIA | W |
| MIA@JAXW6 2021 | MIA 20, JAX 23 | MIA | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project JAX by 1.3. The market has JAX at -3.0.
The model projects 46.0 combined points. The market total is 49.0.
Week 3 of the 2020 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Miami Dolphins, JAX 17, MIA 20 in Week 1 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.048 against JAX -0.204.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
