2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ JAX – Week 6 2021
MIA
JAX
MIA
AWAY
20@23
JAX +3
FINAL · WEEK 6
2021 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: MIA 62%Projected margin: -5.3
MIA
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-5.3
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but JAX won. Projected margin was 5.3 -- the model overestimated by 8.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -122 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
11 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIA
Jaylen Waddle
WR
247.8SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
180.9SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
173.6SEASON PPR
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
199.0SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
180.2SEASON PPR
James Robinson
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@MIAW1 2024 | JAX 17, MIA 20 | MIA | W |
| MIA@JAXW3 2020 | MIA 31, JAX 13 | JAX | L |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES