Dolphins vs Jaguars – Week 6 2021
MIA
JAX
MIA
AWAY
20@23
JAX BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 6
2021 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 20, Jacksonville Jaguars 23.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins, 2 Jaguars.
Model confidence: MIA 62%Our line: MIA -4.0
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -4.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.031Net EPA / play-0.206
-0.059 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (26)
-0.028 (10)Defense EPA / play+0.118 (31)
41.3% (25)Offense success %44.0% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but JAX won. Projected margin was 4.0, the model overestimated by 7.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa2653 yd · 16 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin612 yd · 3 TD
Duke Johnson330 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed149 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@MIAW1 2024 | JAX 17, MIA 20 | MIA | W |
| MIA@JAXW3 2020 | MIA 31, JAX 13 | JAX | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs JAX
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 4.0. The market has MIA at -2.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, MIA 20, JAX 23. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -2.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 6, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.9, 0.4 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2021 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Miami Dolphins, JAX 17, MIA 20 in Week 1 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA -0.031 against JAX -0.206.
