Cowboys vs Patriots – Week 6 2021
DAL
NE
DAL
AWAY
35@29
DAL BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 6
2021 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 35, New England Patriots 29.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cowboys, 2 Patriots.
Model confidence: DAL 58%Our line: DAL -2.7
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -2.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.187Net EPA / play+0.135
+0.096 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.069 (11)
-0.091 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.066 (5)
47.0% (7)Offense success %48.4% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 2.7. Actual: 6. Off by 3.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs NE
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 2.7. The market has DAL at -3.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, DAL 35, NE 29. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -3.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 6, the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 3.2 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, NE 3, DAL 38 in Week 4 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.187 against NE +0.135.
