Chiefs vs Commanders – Week 6 2021
KC
WAS
KC
AWAY
31@13
KC BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 6
2021 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 31, Washington Commanders 13.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Chiefs, 5 Commanders.
Model confidence: KC 57%Our line: KC -2.3
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -2.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.119Net EPA / play-0.124
+0.144 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (21)
+0.025 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.067 (26)
51.1% (1)Offense success %43.9% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 2.3. Actual: 18. Off by 15.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs WAS
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 2.3. The market has KC at -6.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 31, WAS 13. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -6.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 6, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 54.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.1, 4.9 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, WAS 7, KC 28 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.119 against WAS -0.124.
