2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ TEN – Week 6 2021
BUF
TEN
BUF
AWAY
31@34
TEN +3
FINAL · WEEK 6
2021 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BUF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 64%Projected margin: -5.9
BUF
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
-5.9
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but TEN won. Projected margin was 5.9 -- the model overestimated by 8.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -239 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
402.6SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
285.5SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
197.8SEASON PPR
TEN
Ryan Tannehill
QB
268.4SEASON PPR
Derrick Henry
RB
193.3SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@BUFW7 2024 | TEN 10, BUF 34 | BUF | W |
| TEN@BUFW2 2022 | TEN 7, BUF 41 | BUF | W |
| BUF@TENW5 2020 | BUF 16, TEN 42 | TEN | W |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES