Bills vs Titans – Week 6 2021
BUF
TEN
BUF
AWAY
31@34
TEN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 6
2021 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 31, Tennessee Titans 34.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Titans.
Model confidence: BUF 64%Our line: BUF -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -4.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.242Net EPA / play+0.055
+0.101 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.022 (15)
-0.141 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.033 (9)
47.7% (5)Offense success %44.6% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but TEN won. Projected margin was 4.8, the model overestimated by 7.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@BUFW7 2024 | TEN 10, BUF 34 | BUF | W |
| TEN@BUFW2 2022 | TEN 7, BUF 41 | BUF | W |
| BUF@TENW5 2020 | BUF 16, TEN 42 | TEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs TEN
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 4.8. The market has BUF at -6.0.
Tennessee Titans won, BUF 31, TEN 34. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -6.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 6, the Tennessee Titans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 6.2 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2021 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Buffalo Bills, TEN 10, BUF 34 in Week 7 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.242 against TEN +0.055.
