Vikings vs Panthers – Week 6 2021
MIN
CAR
MIN
AWAY
34@28
MIN BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 6
2021 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 34, Carolina Panthers 28.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Vikings, 3 Panthers.
Model confidence: MIN 54%Our line: MIN -1.3
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -1.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.035Net EPA / play-0.093
+0.017 (16)Offense EPA / play-0.138 (30)
-0.018 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.044 (7)
41.4% (24)Offense success %40.9% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 1.3. Actual: 6. Off by 4.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
No noteworthy trends
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@CARW4 2023 | MIN 21, CAR 13 | MIN | W |
| CAR@MINW12 2020 | CAR 27, MIN 28 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs CAR
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 54% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 1.3. The market has MIN at -2.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 34, CAR 28. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -2.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 6, the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.4, 3.9 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 21, CAR 13 in Week 4 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN +0.035 against CAR -0.093.
