Panthers vs Vikings – Week 12 2020
CAR
MIN
CAR
AWAY
27@28
MIN BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 27, Minnesota Vikings 28.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Panthers, 3 Vikings.
Model confidence: MIN 63%Our line: MIN -4.6
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -4.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.073Net EPA / play-0.003
+0.004 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.095 (8)
+0.077 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.098 (27)
45.0% (19)Offense success %49.2% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 4.6. Actual: 1. Off by 3.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2 SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1 SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
212.1 SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3733 yd · 15 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@CARW4 2023 | MIN 21, CAR 13 | MIN | W |
| MIN@CARW6 2021 | MIN 34, CAR 28 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 4.6. The market has MIN at -3.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, CAR 27, MIN 28. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -3.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 12, the Carolina Panthers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 3.6 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 21, CAR 13 in Week 4 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Minnesota Vikings: CAR -0.073 against MIN -0.003.
