2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ IND – Week 12 2020
TEN
IND
TEN
AWAY
45@26
TEN +19
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER B
PICK: IND
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 54%Projected margin: 0.7
IND
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
0.7
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but TEN won. Projected margin was 0.7 -- the model overestimated by 19.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -147 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TEN
Ryan Tannehill
QB
344.4SEASON PPR
Derrick Henry
RB
333.1SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
247.5SEASON PPR
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
252.8SEASON PPR
Philip Rivers
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Nyheim Hines
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@INDW8 2025 | TEN 14, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW3 2025 | IND 41, TEN 20 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW16 2024 | TEN 30, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW6 2024 | IND 20, TEN 17 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW13 2023 | IND 31, TEN 28 | IND | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES