Titans vs Colts – Week 12 2020
TEN
IND
TEN
AWAY
45@26
TEN BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 45, Indianapolis Colts 26.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 54% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Titans, 1 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 54%Our line: IND -1.4
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -1.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.053Net EPA / play+0.109
+0.171 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.079 (12)
+0.117 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.030 (9)
50.1% (3)Offense success %46.6% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but TEN won. Projected margin was 1.4, the model overestimated by 20.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill3819 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@INDW6 2026 | TEN 26, IND 20 | IND | L |
| TEN@INDW8 2025 | TEN 14, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW3 2025 | IND 41, TEN 20 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW16 2024 | TEN 30, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW6 2024 | IND 20, TEN 17 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 54% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 1.4. The market has IND at -3.0.
Tennessee Titans won, TEN 45, IND 26. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 54% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -3.0, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 12, the Tennessee Titans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 4.3 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, TEN 26, IND 20 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Indianapolis Colts: TEN +0.053 against IND +0.109.
