2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ ATL – Week 12 2020
LV
ATL
LV
AWAY
6@43
ATL +37
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER C
PICK: LV
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LV 54%Projected margin: -3.0
LV
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-3.0
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but ATL won. Projected margin was 3.0 -- the model overestimated by 40.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 40.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -184 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LV
Darren Waller
TE
278.6SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
272.1SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
231.3SEASON PPR
ATL
Matt Ryan
QB
282.4SEASON PPR
Calvin Ridley
WR
281.5SEASON PPR
Russell Gage
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@LVW15 2024 | ATL 15, LV 9 | ATL | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES