Raiders vs Falcons – Week 12 2020
LV
ATL
LV
AWAY
6@43
ATL BY 37
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 6, Atlanta Falcons 43.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 54% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Falcons.
Model confidence: LV 54%Our line: LV -1.2
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -1.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.085Net EPA / play-0.042
+0.045 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.021 (16)
+0.130 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.063 (21)
46.5% (11)Offense success %43.2% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but ATL won. Projected margin was 1.2, the model overestimated by 38.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 40.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr4103 yd · 27 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Darren Waller107 rec · 1196 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@LVW15 2024 | ATL 15, LV 9 | ATL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs ATL
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LV by 1.2. The market has LV at -3.5.
Atlanta Falcons won, LV 6, ATL 43. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 54% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -3.5, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 12, the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.2, 4.8 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 15, LV 9 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Atlanta Falcons: LV -0.085 against ATL -0.042.
