Saints vs Broncos – Week 12 2020
NO
DEN
NO
AWAY
31@3
NO BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 31, Denver Broncos 3.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Saints, 1 Broncos.
Model confidence: NO 63%Our line: NO -4.6
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -17.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -4.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.177Net EPA / play-0.147
+0.093 (9)Offense EPA / play-0.104 (31)
-0.084 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.043 (18)
47.6% (8)Offense success %38.8% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 4.6. Actual: 28. Off by 23.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Drew Brees2942 yd · 24 TD · 6 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs DEN
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 4.6. The market has NO at -17.0.
New Orleans Saints won, NO 31, DEN 3. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -17.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 17.0 points.
In Week 12, the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 9.7 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 33, NO 10 in Week 7 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.177 against DEN -0.147.
