Giants vs Bengals – Week 12 2020
NYG
CIN
NYG
AWAY
19@17
NYG BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 19, Cincinnati Bengals 17.
Going in, our model had favored New York Giants at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bengals.
Model confidence: NYG 53%Our line: NYG -0.8
ODDS
SPREAD
NYG -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NYG -0.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NYG · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.086Net EPA / play-0.141
-0.056 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.049 (26)
+0.031 (16)Defense EPA / play+0.092 (26)
41.6% (27)Offense success %43.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NYG by 0.8. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
CIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@NYGW6 2024 | CIN 17, NYG 7 | NYG | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs CIN
Our model takes New York Giants at 53% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NYG by 0.8. The market has NYG at -6.5.
New York Giants won, NYG 19, CIN 17. Our model had favored New York Giants at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New York Giants at -6.5, meaning the book expects New York Giants to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 12, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 0.3 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 17, NYG 7 in Week 6 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New York Giants: NYG -0.086 against CIN -0.141.
