NYG @ CIN – Week 12 2020
NYG
CIN
NYG
AWAY
19@17
NYG BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: NYG 53%Our line: NYG -0.8
NYG
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-0.8
OUR LINE
-111
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.086Net EPA / play-0.141
-0.056Offense EPA / play-0.049
+0.031Defense EPA / play+0.092
41.6%Offense success %43.6%
46.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NYG by 0.8. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -260 | +227 |
| Our fair price | -111 | +111 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NYG -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.39
OUR NUMBER
53%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
70%
DIFFERENCE
-18%
Both figures are for NYG. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
CIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
NYG
Daniel Jones
QB
180.0 SEASON PPR
Sterling Shepard
WR
162.5 SEASON PPR
Evan Engram
TE
141.0 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
Daniel Jones2943 yd · 11 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Wayne Gallman682 yd · 6 TD
Daniel Jones423 yd · 1 TD
Alfred Morris238 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Darius Slayton50 rec · 751 yd · 3 TD
Sterling Shepard66 rec · 656 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@NYGW6 2024 | CIN 17, NYG 7 | NYG | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs CIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New York Giants at 53% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NYG by 0.8. The market has NYG at -6.5.
The model projects 45.3 combined points. The market total is 45.0.
Week 12 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 17, NYG 7 in Week 6 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New York Giants: NYG -0.086 against CIN -0.141.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
