HOU @ DET – Week 12 2020
HOU
DET
HOU
AWAY
41@25
HOU BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 54%Our line: HOU -1.2
HOU
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-1.2
OUR LINE
-115
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.071Net EPA / play-0.208
+0.099Offense EPA / play-0.005
+0.170Defense EPA / play+0.203
47.6%Offense success %44.3%
50.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 1.2. Actual: 16. Off by 14.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | HOU | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -155 | +139 |
| Our fair price | -115 | +115 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD HOU -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
54%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
59%
DIFFERENCE
-6%
Both figures are for HOU. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
HOU
Deshaun Watson
QB
369.3 SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
232.0 SEASON PPR
Will Fuller
WR
188.9 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Deshaun Watson4823 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
David Johnson691 yd · 6 TD
Deshaun Watson444 yd · 3 TD
Duke Johnson235 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks81 rec · 1150 yd · 6 TD
Will Fuller53 rec · 879 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@HOUW10 2024 | DET 26, HOU 23 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Houston Texans at 54% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 1.2. The market has HOU at -3.0.
The model projects 48.3 combined points. The market total is 52.5.
Week 12 of the 2020 season, THU 12:30 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 26, HOU 23 in Week 10 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Houston Texans: HOU -0.071 against DET -0.208.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
