Chiefs vs Buccaneers – Week 12 2020
KC
TB
KC
AWAY
27@24
KC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: KC 58%Our line: KC -2.8
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -2.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.170
+0.184 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.119 (6)
+0.045 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (6)
50.1% (3)Offense success %45.9% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 2.8. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
TB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@KCW9 2024 | TB 24, KC 30 | KC | W |
| KC@TBW4 2022 | KC 41, TB 31 | TB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs TB
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 2.8. The market has KC at -3.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 27, TB 24. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -3.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 12, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 56.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.4, 7.6 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, TB 24, KC 30 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: KC +0.138 against TB +0.170.
