2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ TB – Week 12 2020
KC
TB
KC
AWAY
27@24
KC +3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 58%Projected margin: -4.1
KC
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-4.1
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 4.1. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -166 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
TB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
374.4SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
328.9SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
312.8SEASON PPR
TB
Tom Brady
QB
337.9SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
248.6SEASON PPR
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@KCW9 2024 | TB 24, KC 30 | KC | W |
| KC@TBW4 2022 | KC 41, TB 31 | TB | L |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES