Cardinals vs Patriots – Week 12 2020
ARI
NE
ARI
AWAY
17@20
NE BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 17, New England Patriots 20.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Cardinals, 2 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 51%Our line: NE -0.4
ODDS
SPREAD
NE +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -0.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.031Net EPA / play-0.076
+0.038 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.004 (21)
+0.007 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.071 (22)
45.4% (18)Offense success %46.1% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NE by 0.4. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
378.7 SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
287.8 SEASON PPR
Kenyan Drake
RB
192.2 SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray3971 yd · 26 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Kenyan Drake955 yd · 10 TD
Kyler Murray819 yd · 11 TD
Chase Edmonds448 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins115 rec · 1407 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@ARIW15 2024 | NE 17, ARI 30 | ARI | W |
| NE@ARIW14 2022 | NE 27, ARI 13 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 51% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 0.4. The market has NE at +1.0.
New England Patriots won, ARI 17, NE 20. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at +1.0, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 12, the Arizona Cardinals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.1, 3.9 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, NE 17, ARI 30 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI +0.031 against NE -0.076.
