Bears vs Packers – Week 12 2020
CHI
GB
CHI
AWAY
25@41
GB BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 25, Green Bay Packers 41.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bears.
Model confidence: GB 68%Our line: GB -6.1
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -6.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.033Net EPA / play+0.196
-0.028 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.219 (1)
+0.006 (10)Defense EPA / play+0.022 (14)
43.6% (22)Offense success %50.7% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 6.1. Actual: 16. Off by 9.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CHI
264.8 SEASON PPR
Allen Robinson
WR
262.9 SEASON PPR
Mitchell Trubisky
QB
153.7 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
Mitchell Trubisky2055 yd · 16 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
David Montgomery1070 yd · 8 TD
Cordarrelle Patterson232 yd · 1 TD
Mitchell Trubisky195 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Allen Robinson102 rec · 1250 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@GBW5 2026 | CHI 7, GB 31 | CHI | L |
| GB@CHIW16 2025 | GB 16, CHI 22 | CHI | W |
| CHI@GBW14 2025 | CHI 21, GB 28 | GB | W |
| CHI@GBW18 2024 | CHI 24, GB 22 | GB | L |
| GB@CHIW11 2024 | GB 20, CHI 19 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 68% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project GB by 6.1. The market has GB at -7.5.
Green Bay Packers won, CHI 25, GB 41. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -7.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 12, the Chicago Bears were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 1.0 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2020 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Green Bay Packers, CHI 7, GB 31 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Green Bay Packers: CHI -0.033 against GB +0.196.
