MIA @ NYJ – Week 12 2020
MIA
NYJ
MIA
AWAY
20@3
MIA BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 63%Our line: MIA -4.4
MIA
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.4
OUR LINE
-170
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.227
+0.007Offense EPA / play-0.143
-0.041Defense EPA / play+0.084
46.0%Offense success %40.2%
45.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 4.4. Actual: 17. Off by 12.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -350 | +296 |
| Our fair price | -170 | +170 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.34
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
75%
DIFFERENCE
-13%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DeVante Parker
WR
166.3 SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
164.2 SEASON PPR
Mike Gesicki
TE
159.3 SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Ryan Fitzpatrick2091 yd · 13 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin584 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed319 yd · 3 TD
Matt Breida254 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DeVante Parker63 rec · 793 yd · 4 TD
Mike Gesicki53 rec · 703 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NYJW14 2025 | MIA 34, NYJ 10 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW4 2025 | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW18 2024 | MIA 20, NYJ 32 | MIA | L |
| NYJ@MIAW14 2024 | NYJ 26, MIA 32 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW15 2023 | NYJ 0, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs NYJ
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 4.4. The market has MIA at -7.5.
The model projects 44.7 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 12 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 34, NYJ 10 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.048 against NYJ -0.227.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
