2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ NYJ – Week 12 2020
MIA
NYJ
MIA
AWAY
20@3
MIA +17
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: MIA 63%Projected margin: -6.5
MIA
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
-6.5
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 6.5. Actual: 17. Off by 10.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -350 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
2 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DeVante Parker
WR
166.3SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
164.2SEASON PPR
Mike Gesicki
TE
159.3SEASON PPR
NYJ
Jamison Crowder
WR
172.0SEASON PPR
Sam Darnold
QB
134.0SEASON PPR
Frank Gore
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NYJW14 2025 | MIA 34, NYJ 10 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW4 2025 | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW18 2024 | MIA 20, NYJ 32 | MIA | L |
| NYJ@MIAW14 2024 | NYJ 26, MIA 32 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW15 2023 | NYJ 0, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES