Dolphins vs Jets – Week 14 2025
MIA
NYJ
MIA
AWAY
34@10
MIA BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 14
2025 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 34, New York Jets 10.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Jets.
Model confidence: MIA 66%Our line: MIA -5.6
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -5.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.105Net EPA / play-0.274
-0.017 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.127 (29)
+0.088 (26)Defense EPA / play+0.147 (31)
41.9% (27)Offense success %40.7% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 5.6. Actual: 24. Off by 18.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@MIAW4 2025 | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW18 2024 | MIA 20, NYJ 32 | MIA | L |
| NYJ@MIAW14 2024 | NYJ 26, MIA 32 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW15 2023 | NYJ 0, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW12 2023 | MIA 34, NYJ 13 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs NYJ
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 5.6. The market has MIA at -2.5.
Miami Dolphins won, MIA 34, NYJ 10. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -2.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 14, the New York Jets were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.7, 2.2 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, NYJ 21, MIA 27 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA -0.105 against NYJ -0.274.
