MIA @ NYJ – Week 14 2025
MIA
NYJ
MIA
AWAY
34@10
MIA BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 14
2025 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 66%Our line: MIA -5.6
MIA
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.6
OUR LINE
-196
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.105Net EPA / play-0.274
-0.017Offense EPA / play-0.127
+0.088Defense EPA / play+0.147
41.9%Offense success %40.7%
48.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 5.6. Actual: 24. Off by 18.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -148 | +124 |
| Our fair price | -196 | +196 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
57%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8 SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1 SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
160.7 SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
T.Tagovailoa2660 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
D.Achane1350 yd · 8 TD
J.Wright288 yd · 2 TD
O.Gordon199 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
J.Waddle64 rec · 910 yd · 6 TD
D.Achane67 rec · 488 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@MIAW4 2025 | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW18 2024 | MIA 20, NYJ 32 | MIA | L |
| NYJ@MIAW14 2024 | NYJ 26, MIA 32 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW15 2023 | NYJ 0, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW12 2023 | MIA 34, NYJ 13 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs NYJ
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 5.6. The market has MIA at -2.5.
The model projects 43.7 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 14 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, NYJ 21, MIA 27 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA -0.105 against NYJ -0.274.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
